Wheat Price and Market Forecast

The price of wheat is usually quoted in USd, which is one hundredth of a USD, i.e. 1 cent.

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Price change

Historical prices

Wheat growing conditions, varieties and uses

Wheat is one of the world’s most widely traded commodities. Wheat fields can be found across Europe, the Americas and Asia. Wheat does not require particularly demanding growing conditions. Average spring and summer temperatures between 14 and 17 degrees Celsius are ideal. Annual rainfall should ideally range from 250 to 350 mm.

Wheat varieties can be divided into spring and winter wheat based on when farmers sow them. Winter varieties include hard red wheat, which accounts for approximately half of US production. It is particularly suitable for making flour used in everyday baked goods. Another popular winter variety is soft red wheat, which bakers tend to use for delicate pastries.

Hard red wheat also has a spring variety. Its high gluten content makes it suitable for producing bread and pizza dough. This variety is typical of the northern regions of the United States and Canada. It is harvested in autumn.

Hard wheat, which includes durum and semolina wheat, is suitable for making pasta. Producers often highlight semolina wheat on their product packaging. Its hardness contributes to the proper taste and texture of pasta and baked goods. It is popular in Mediterranean Europe and the Middle East. Bulgur is also made from cracked grains of this type of wheat using a special process.

In addition to the foods mentioned above, such as baked goods and pasta, wheat is used as livestock feed. Wheat is also important in the production of beer and spirits. When stored in a dry, dark environment, wheat has a very long shelf life of up to several decades. These properties make wheat a key component of the strategic reserves held by many countries.

Wheat production

Global wheat production reached a record of approximately 808.6 million tonnes per year in the 2025/26 season. China is the largest producer, with around 140 million tonnes. It is followed by the European Union as a whole, with approximately 122 million tonnes, and India, with about 117 million tonnes of this grain. Russia remains the world’s largest wheat exporter, producing around 85 million tonnes.

Historical wheat prices

Wheat price data has been publicly available since the late 1950s. In 1960, one bushel of wheat, approximately 27.216 kg, cost around 2 US dollars (USD). At the time, one kilogram of wheat traded at the equivalent of 7 cents.

Wheat prices began to rise in the 1970s. They reached their peak for that period in February 1974, when one bushel of wheat cost USD 6.32. In 2008, during the financial crisis, the price approached USD 12 per bushel.

A local low occurred in May 2010, when traders paid approximately USD 4.36 per bushel of wheat. Over the following two years, the price rose to another local high of USD 9.40 in July 2012.

However, the highest price on record occurred in March 2022. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the price of a bushel of wheat surged to a record of approximately USD 12.85 to USD 13.60. This was caused by a combination of wartime supply disruption in one of the key exporting regions and concerns about global supplies. Prices then began to fall. They declined throughout 2023 and 2024, reaching lows of around USD 5.20 to USD 5.40 per bushel in 2024 and 2025.

A rally began in July 2026. At the time this article was updated, the price of soft red winter wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was around USD 6.70 to USD 6.83 per bushel, its highest level since May 2024. In July alone, the price rose by approximately 16% to a two-year high.

Wheat price forecast

Several factors are behind the rise in July. Tensions in the Black Sea region have intensified again. Russia has restricted operations at its ports, while Ukrainian grain infrastructure has been targeted by strikes. The market is reacting nervously because a large proportion of global exports passes through this region.

Weather conditions in Europe have also contributed. Heatwaves reduced the expected French harvest, cutting some supply from the market.

It is difficult to predict where the price will go next. On the one hand, a record harvest is pushing global production higher. On the other, an escalation in the Black Sea region or another heatwave could quickly drive the price upwards. In our view, wheat will remain particularly sensitive to geopolitical developments and weather conditions in the main growing regions.

Nothing in this article should be regarded as investment advice. The author of this article is not an investment adviser.

How to trade wheat

Wheat is traded on commodity exchanges primarily through futures contracts. One of the best-known markets is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), where hundreds of thousands of wheat contracts may be traded each day. One contract represents 136 tonnes of wheat, or 5,000 bushels. The most widely traded wheat contract in the world is for the delivery of the soft red winter variety.

You cannot store investment wheat at home, so how can you invest through shares and ETFs?

Investing in commodities such as wheat can provide useful portfolio diversification and may also offer protection against inflation. Wheat is one of the world’s most important commodities. Its price affects global food prices and, consequently, the economies of many countries.

Investors seeking exposure to this segment have several options for investing in wheat through ETFs and shares in companies involved in wheat production, processing or trading.

Teucrium Wheat Fund (ticker WEAT) is one of the most popular ETFs focused on wheat. The ETF is designed to track wheat prices through futures contracts.

• Fund focus: The ETF aims to track wheat prices by investing in wheat futures contracts.
• Fund manager: Teucrium Trading, LLC., a US specialist in commodity ETFs.
• Management fees: Annual costs are approximately 1%, which is typical for commodity ETFs.
• Liquidity: The WEAT ETF has reasonable liquidity, which means it can be bought or sold without investors struggling to find a counterparty.
• Risks: Investments in futures contracts can be volatile and carry risks associated with commodity price movements.
• Dividends: This ETF does not pay regular dividends. Investors may therefore generate returns primarily from increases in the fund’s price.
• Available from broker: eToro.

VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (ticker MOO) is a broadly focused ETF that includes companies operating in the agricultural sector. These include companies involved in wheat production and processing.

• Fund focus: Investments in global companies operating in the agricultural sector, including grain processing.
• Fund manager: VanEck.
• Fund diversification: The fund trading under the ticker MOO holds more than 50 different shares, providing investors with broad diversification across the agricultural sector. These are mainly shares from countries such as the United States, Canada, Japan and Germany.
• Fees: Annual costs are approximately 0.56%, which is below the average fee level for commodity ETFs. Its fee is therefore relatively lower than that of other ETFs.
• Dividends: The fund currently has a dividend yield of approximately 1.7%, usually up to around 2% depending on the amount of the current distribution. Dividends are paid once a year.
• Available from broker: eToro.

Archer Daniels Midland Company (ticker ADM) is one of the world’s largest food and agricultural companies involved in processing and distributing grains, including wheat.

• Focus: ADM is involved in processing and distributing agricultural products, including wheat.
• Market capitalisation: The company has a market capitalisation of more than USD 50 billion, placing it among large, established companies.
• Dividends: ADM pays regular dividends, making it an attractive option for investors seeking regular income. The company’s dividend yield is around 3.3% per year, with dividends paid quarterly.
• Geographical presence: The company operates globally, reducing the risk associated with geographical factors.
• Available from broker: eToro and XTB.

Bunge Limited (ticker BG) is a global agricultural and food company involved in processing and trading grains, including wheat.

• Focus: The company focuses on processing and trading commodities.
• Market capitalisation: The company has a market capitalisation of around USD 15 billion, making it a medium-sized company.
• Dividends: Bunge Limited pays regular dividends, which attracts long-term investors. The company’s dividend yield is approximately 2.7% per year.
• Company expansion: The company is actively expanding into emerging markets, allowing it to grow globally.
• Available from broker: eToro.

Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (ticker DBA) is an ETF that provides exposure to a broad range of agricultural commodities, including wheat.

• Focus: The ETF aims to track the performance of futures contracts on various agricultural commodities.
• Fund manager: Invesco, a well-known investment and financial services company.
• Diversification: This fund trades futures on more than 10 agricultural commodities, providing good diversification.
• Fees: Annual costs are approximately 0.85%, which is average for commodity ETFs.
• Liquidity: This ETF has good liquidity and can therefore be traded on the stock exchange, bought and sold without difficulty.
• Available from broker: eToro.

Investing in wheat through ETFs and shares offers an interesting opportunity for those seeking to diversify their portfolios and gain exposure to the agricultural sector. As retail investors cannot purchase physical wheat, buying ETFs or shares is a logical alternative.

However, it is also important to understand the risks associated with commodity markets, including price volatility and potential losses.

What affects the exchange-traded price of wheat

The price of wheat is influenced primarily by the weather. Prolonged drought causes particular difficulties for growers. Flooding can also damage crops. Wheat ideally requires mild, stable conditions with regular rainfall. Another factor is the level of wheat stocks remaining from previous years. However, this information is not always publicly available.

Geopolitics also plays a major role. Exports from the Black Sea region, including Russia and Ukraine, account for a significant share of global wheat trade. Any tension in this region is therefore quickly reflected in exchange-traded prices.

Traders should also take seasonal fluctuations in wheat prices into account. Spring wheat is typically harvested in September. More wheat is generally available immediately after the harvest, so its price usually falls. The opposite trend generally emerges in December, when demand tends to push wheat prices higher.