Lithium price and its expected outlook

Current lithium price

Price change

Historical prices

What lithium is and how it is used

Lithium (chemical symbol Li) is a reactive alkali metal with a shiny silver colour. It is light and soft, and it conducts heat and electricity well. In nature, it occurs only in compounds, which is why extracting it is energy-intensive.

Lithium is used in industrial batteries, for example in electric vehicles or to store larger amounts of surplus energy, such as within the Megapack system that Tesla is testing in the United Kingdom. It is also used in electronics as a conductor. In addition, it is used in oxide form as a flux (to reduce the melting point of metals) and in the glass industry.

Global lithium production and processing

Global lithium mining has increased roughly ninefold over the past ten years. In 2025, global production reached around 290,000 tonnes, which is 31% more than in 2024 (222,000 tonnes). The main reason for this growth is long-term demand from batteries, whether for electric vehicles or stationary energy storage.

Australia remains at the top of the producers’ ranking. It has extensive deposits of the mineral spodumene and uses hard-rock mining. The main development in 2025, however, is that China overtook Chile and moved into second place. Zimbabwe and Argentina complete the top five, both with very dynamic growth.

When we reviewed the USGS data, China’s rapid surge stood out most. Mining there rose by 50% between 2024 and 2025, to 62,000 tonnes. Mali then literally shot up from almost zero to 9,400 tonnes thanks to two new operations. The geography of mining is changing faster than one might expect.

Australia, China and Chile together still account for around 72% of global production. If we add Zimbabwe and Argentina, the figure reaches 90%.

From a processing perspective, the picture remains far less varied. China controls roughly 70 to 75% of global lithium refining capacity. It also owns most lithium-ion battery factories, with estimates of around 70 to 80% of global production.

The European Union and the United States are both trying to reduce this dependence. Under the Critical Raw Materials Act, the EU has set a target of sourcing at least 10% of consumption from domestic extraction by 2030 and processing 40% on its own territory. A good target. The reality is somewhat more complicated.

Building a new mine takes more than 16 years on average. In the short term, then, neither of these blocs can make a major breakaway. It is more of a ten-year game in which the cards are only just being shuffled.

Historical lithium price development

The lithium price is usually tracked in Chinese yuan per tonne, or converted into US dollars. China has a dominant position in price formation and most contracts are settled there. For clarity, we provide the values below in US dollars.

In May 2017, a tonne of lithium traded at around USD 20,000. The metal reached a local peak at the end of 2017 at approximately USD 24,000, then began to decline gradually. By the beginning of 2019, the price was already USD 11,400, and by the end of 2020 it had fallen to around USD 5,500.

Then 2021 arrived and brought a turning point. In May 2021, the price climbed to USD 12,800. The maximum came in November 2022, when a tonne cost approximately USD 71,500. That is five times the value from the previous spring and remains the historical record to this day.

The extreme peak was followed by an equally dramatic fall. In 2023, the price declined, and in 2024 it mostly moved between USD 10,000 and USD 15,000 per tonne. In the first half of 2025, the market then searched for a bottom. In June 2025, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to roughly USD 8,300 per tonne, a multi-year low.

And that was when another reversal came. Between June and November 2025, the price rose by 57% to around USD 13,000. In January 2026, it was already testing USD 16,000, and by the end of January 2026 it had climbed to USD 26,278, a rise of more than 90% in two months.

In April and May 2026, the lithium price in China is moving around CNY 173,000 to CNY 175,000 per tonne, equivalent to approximately USD 24,000 to USD 25,000. The market has regained momentum, but with much greater volatility than it was used to in the past. Monthly swings of tens of percent are no longer the exception.

[warning]Lithium is among the most volatile commodities of all. Historical swings of hundreds of percent within a few months are not unusual, so take this into account when making any investment decision.[/warning]

Future lithium price outlook

After a sharp rebound from the bottom, analysts disagree on where the lithium price will head next. Consensus estimates for 2026 sit within a broad range of USD 11,400 to USD 28,600 per tonne. Some more optimistic scenarios even allow for a break above USD 30,000, a level the market last saw at the beginning of 2023.

The main reason for the rising price is a market turnaround. After several years of surplus inventories, 2026 could end in deficit. Morgan Stanley estimates a shortfall of 80,000 tonnes of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent), while UBS is more cautious, estimating roughly 22,000 tonnes. Some Chinese analysts, by contrast, still expect a slight surplus. The truth is somewhere in between.

The automotive industry is no longer the only driver. Stationary energy storage for stabilising electricity grids is currently the fastest-growing segment of lithium demand. AI data centres are also starting to play a role, as their backup battery systems need tens of megawatt-hours of capacity.

I must admit that this change in the demand structure surprised me. Just three years ago, the market was driven almost entirely by electric vehicles. Today, according to some estimates, storage already accounts for more than 30% of annual consumption, and its share continues to grow.

This is not, however, a one-way bet. There are several risks. The main ones include the rise of sodium batteries for stationary applications (they are cheaper, although they have lower energy density), a potential slowdown in electric vehicle sales in Europe and China, and the risk that producers will flood the market again as soon as the price rises high enough. Just one of these factors would be enough to halt the growth.

Predicting the lithium price over a horizon longer than one year is very difficult, almost impossible in our view. The market has its cyclical nature: rise, surplus, fall, deficit and another rise. If expectations of strong demand growth from the storage sector are fulfilled, prices in the higher tens of thousands of dollars may return in the coming years. If not, we are more likely to see consolidation somewhere in the USD 12,000 to USD 20,000 per tonne range. Please note that this is not investment advice, but a summary of public forecasts and the author’s personal view.

Shares and ETFs of lithium mining companies

Lithium can be traded indirectly by buying or selling shares of companies that mine this metal. This is the simplest way for an “ordinary investor” to invest, because these are companies traded on US markets, which you can access through your broker.

The best-known examples of such companies include Albemarle (ALB) and Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM). Both shares are traded on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange).

Another option is to invest in ETFs, meaning exchange-traded funds, that focus on the lithium companies mentioned above, such as ALB or SQM. You therefore do not own shares in individual companies directly, but indirectly through a fund. The investor does not need to buy many individual shares and can instead buy just one instrument, namely the chosen exchange-traded fund.

A popular ETF that trades “lithium shares” is Global X Lithium & Battery Tech 52% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider ETF (ticker LIT). This instrument is also traded on the NYSE, so it is commonly available to users of online brokers.

Lithium is also traded on a commodity exchange. For small retail investors, however, this route is not available – you would have to become a licensed professional investor in the United States.

What affects the lithium price

Over the past year, the price was driven upwards mainly by strong industrial demand. The industry was initially paralysed by the Covid situation, before then “restarting” again. As long as consumers continue to demand new electric vehicles and consumer electronics, lithium prices can be expected at least to remain at current levels.